Since 1954, 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经13次逐步加息以抑制通货膨胀，然后才考虑逆转加息并将利率降下来. 当你在海滩上的时候，它只是发生的事情，就像糟糕的天气一样. 驾驭动荡市场的一个方法是了解正在发生的事情，以及今天如何为这样的事件做好准备.

How could a “soft landing” impact you? Are you ready?

当美联储将利率提高到足以减缓经济和抑制通货膨胀而不会使经济陷入衰退时, this is called a “soft landing.” The metaphor of using the aviation term “soft landing,“经济”指的是飞机着陆时不损坏飞机或飞机内的物品.

How could a “hard landing” impact you? Are you ready?

当经济快速增长后出现明显放缓时，就会出现硬着陆. For example, 当美联储决定提高利率以抑制通货膨胀时, it may turn the economy into a period of stagnation or, ultimately, recession. “硬着陆”一词来自航空领域，比喻飞机以比正常着陆更大的垂直速度和力量下降，而不会真正坠毁.

However, “硬着陆或软着陆”的术语多少有些主观，因为没有固定的定义来量化它们. 一些市场分析人士认为，尽管经济处于实际衰退之中，但失业率小幅上升的温和衰退是软着陆，而不是硬着陆.

最著名的“硬着陆”可能发生在1980年7月至1981年1月. The Fed raised the federal funds rate to north of 19%. 经济的反应是从1981年7月到1982年11月长达16个月的衰退, with unemployment hovering around 10.8%. 最终，美联储降低了利率，经济才有机会开始复苏.

The most prevalent "soft landing" occurred in 1994, 在1990-91年的经济衰退之后，美国经济艰难地进入了复苏的第三个年头. 1994年初，联邦基金利率为3%，消费者价格指数(CPI)通胀率为2.8%, and the unemployment rate quickly fell. 美联储意识到经济在增长，失业率在下降, 并小幅提高利率，以缓解潜在的通胀上升. Throughout the year, the Fed cut rates seven times. Then, in 1995, it cut its primary interest rate, the federal funds rate, three times to keep inflation from rising. 美联储前副主席布林德(Alan Blinder)称其为“完美软着陆”."

What can you do about it?

经济是在软着陆中空转还是在经历硬着陆危机, 在经济不确定的情况下，你为这样的事件做好准备，仔细管理你的财务是至关重要的. Consider these seven tips for navigating an unstable economy.

1. Create an honest and manageable budget -一个你可以轻松管理的诚实的预算可以帮助你在不稳定的经济中度过难关. A strong budget can not only assist in your financial stability, 但它也可以给你信心，帮助你度过困难时期，因为在历史上不可预测的经济中，这是不可避免的.
2. Cut back on your spending — Most of us frivolously spend far more than we truly need to. There is so much great stuff out there that makes life easier, more fun, better tasting, and more impressive, but during difficult times, being willing to cut back on unnecessary spending can go a long way.
3. Build a comfortable emergency fund -有一笔足够的应急基金，可以帮助你减轻市场波动和利率变化带来的压力和焦虑. 一般来说，鼓励你存足够的钱来支付3-6个月的开支和生活方式.
4. Ensure you are diversified -你可能总是听说建立一个多元化的投资组合，因为它非常重要. If you have your money spread out over different investments, should any take a hit in a volatile market, hopefully the others can help lessen the blow.
5. Consult your financial professional 考虑咨询金融专业人士，以确定你是否真的做好了软着陆或硬着陆的准备. 他们不仅能给你反馈，告诉你如果市场失控你该如何应对, 但它们也可以帮助你制定策略和目标，以应对风险和保护财富的选择.

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Important Disclosures

本材料中表达的观点仅供一般参考，并不打算向任何个人提供具体的建议或建议.

没有人能保证多元化投资组合会提高整体回报或优于非多元化投资组合. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial对其完整性或准确性不作任何陈述.

Sources:

• A Brief History of Hard and Soft Landings | Cato at Liberty Blog
• Fed's Interest Rate History: The Fed Funds Rate Since 1981 | Bankrate
• What is a soft landing? | Brookings
• Soft Landing: Definition and History in Economics (investopedia.com)
• The Great Recession and Its Aftermath | Federal Reserve History

This article was prepared by LPL Marketing Solutions.

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